Weekend Slate: Bengals keep hope alive for one more week, Vikings set up decisive battle with Lions for No. 1

Colts go out sad, Dolphins stay alive without Tagovailoa, Chargers clinch, Aaron Rodgers gets annihilated

I recapped the Texans “game” on “Wednesday.”

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Jets 14 at Bills 40 — Staked to this game via my Rotoworld obligations, I simply watched as the music played and our fearless captain’s boat took the last steps on the road to capsizing.

There seems to be a number of people rooting against Aaron Rodgers at this point, not quite sure why as I’ve never looked at any news and don’t understand words when I read them. The weirdest thing about watching this version of Rodgers to me isn’t that he’s disinterested, because that’s happened before, it’s that he simply can’t move. He can’t make plays up. The play I feature above, he has three receivers leaking out all in a row, all arguably open, and delivers just an atrocious pass. A duck that winds up hitting his target in the foot. Uncatchable.

So you look at the headlines, you look at the desire, you look at the on-field talent that has clearly declined. I guess there’s a certain amount of credibility built with an audience over the years that is inherent to a physical sport, but it is bizarre to me to watch what Rodgers has become and square that with how he is still talked about by the people in the NFL cocoon that do broadcasts and played the position. He is protected. I’m not Aaron Rodgers popular, but the idea that pops up in my head when I compare this to writing is Rick Reilly. Famously, as he started to decline at Sports Illustrated, he was shunned and taken out of circulation in sports media. There were certainly no giant ESPN shows that tried to use him as a main host, we’d definitely remember them.

Where I’m going with this is: It’s kind of amazing that Rodgers is given any “he can still play” benefit of the doubt. And also this might be your last chance to laugh at him for a long time in a way that actually impacts him.

We’ve become a provocateur society to some extent, and the people who can generate attention, no matter how negative it is, are always given some unearned benefit of the doubt. You’re going to hate the next things that Rodgers says out loud, but he long ago stopped being interested in the feedback loop of what his attention generates. Many people have. And that’s the great thing about sports: It has an objective set of facts and standards, facts such as “Aaron Rodgers had the worst QBR in a game since Davis Mills in Week 4 of 2021.” Rodgers can’t tell us that he doesn’t care that he accomplished this, because it obviously irks him. He can tell us derisively that we were probably vaccinated, but the ball didn’t lie. The man can’t play quarterback anymore. The only people who would argue he can simply don’t watch football.

Packers 25 at Vikings 27 — I’m going to say what I’ve said several times this year: I think people are sleeping on the Vikings as legitimate NFC Super Bowl favorites at their own peril. They can’t believe Sam Darnold can be this good in this box, just as they couldn’t believe that Jimmy Garoppolo could for the 49ers. And the overwhelming consensus becomes something like “Well they’ll probably fall apart when Darnold is asked to do more than he should in the playoffs.”

The thing is, they’ve asked him to do a lot all year. He’s kind of delivered? Like, maybe not to an MVP level. But he’s willing to take the big throws and he can hit them. And when you look at the totality of the box here: One of the best defenses in the NFL, one of the best offenses in the NFL, quarterback playing well … like, I just don’t see why it’s so hard to say that the Vikings are a Super Bowl favorite. They haven’t lost half the defense like the Lions have. I’d say the Eagles are on their level but it isn’t like Jalen Hurts has been playing great ball all year either, right?

But the hivemind resists, the hivemind has been taught that quarterbacks can’t be found like this, and no matter how many sick throws and concepts you show them, it’s still the guy who saw ghosts that one time. Statistically the odds are that the Hive Mind will be right, because statistically all but one team loses. But if you ask me to map out which teams I feel best about heading into the playoffs, it’s Vikings and Eagles in the NFC.

Falcons 24 at Commanders 30 (OT) — Michael Penix was extremely hit or miss in his second start, as you’d expect from a rookie quarterback. What you would not have expected from this game was how badly Raheem Morris wanted to give it away. The Falcons had 23 carries for 126 yards and two touchdowns against the Commanders on the ground. They had a 17-7 lead at halftime. The Falcons called … four run plays to Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in the second half.

Penix did his best, and his best included some cool end of half drives for field-goal attempts. Here’s how Raheem Morris supported him: Not calling any of three timeouts on Atlanta’s final drive of the first half, forcing a field-goal attempt on a drive that started with 1:53 left at the Atlanta 28. Most impressively, Morris let the clock run from 46 seconds to 20 seconds after a Darnell Mooney 17-yard completion that was done at about 40 seconds left. Mike Tirico screamed in to the void: “They’ve got three timeouts, 35 seconds, this probably would have been a good time to use one.” Cris Collinsworth helpfully added: “That’s a lot of time.” Morris followed up by not using either of two remaining timeouts after a 25-yard pass to Mooney on a play that started with 40 seconds left. He was down with 33 seconds left. The snap got off at 17 seconds left, and ended with 12 seconds left. (“Again, like the first half, timeout not taken,” Tirico said.) The Falcons missed the go-ahead 56-yard field goal with their backup kicker. Who knows how much closer they could have been? Let’s put up Penix’s tying touchdown throw so I stop feeling depressed talking about this game:

Teams always show you who they are when the chips are down, and who the Commanders became in overtime was “the guy who spams Jaden Daniels runs” because Daniels is special. I don’t hate that! I’ve been pretty critical of Kliff Kingsbury this year and I’m sure he will adjust slowly at some point in the playoffs, but the Falcons had no answer. Daniels got a first down on a called run play at the Atlanta 14, added a scramble to the two on second-and-goal, then walked the game off with a touchdown pass to Zach Ertz.

Rams 13 at Cardinals 9 — There seems to still be a groundswell of support for the idea of the Rams being “dangerous” as they clinched the NFC West based on strength of victory on Sunday night. To be clear, the names on the offense are intimidating. But, if I may challenge that: Is that just a perception based on one island game against the Bills in Week 13?

The other five games they’ve won in a row around that Buffalo game: 21-14 to the reeling Saints, 12-6 to the reeling 49ers, 19-9 to the reeling Jets, and now, 13-9 to the Arizona Cardinals. This is not exactly the reloaded offense we were promised upon the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. They have struggled. Matthew Stafford has thrown one touchdown and one interception in his last three games. They were outgained by the Cardinals 15.4 yards per play to 4.8, and 396-257 total.

They come away with this win because the Cardinals go 1-for-4 in the red zone, including Trey McBride letting a Kyler Murray heater glance off his face mask and into Ahkello Witherspoon’s arms for the game-winning pick:

Big props to the Los Angeles defense, by the way — no shade to them, they’re playing great ball. But when you get compared to the Tebow Broncos via statistics, I would say the whiff of fraud is coming on strong. And Jonathan Gannon of course did not help matters by kicking a field goal down 13-6 in the red zone in the fourth quarter rather than going for fourth-and-4 at the Los Angeles 10. Arizona then was forced to go for it on fourth-and-10 at the LAR 40 on the ensuing drive. Murray was picked.

I will be picking the Packers or Commanders to beat this team confidently in the Wild Card round. Perhaps that winds up being folly and Stafford and crew were saving it, but I am not scared to be wrong about that.

Bengals 30 at Broncos 24 — It is fair to say that the Bengals offense left a lot of meat on the bone in this game. They somehow didn’t punt until overtime. But they ended their first two drives on failed fourth-down gos, the last of which happened on fourth-and-goal from the 2. Joe Burrow was sacked seven times — something that hadn’t happened since the 2022 season — as he tried to make plays happen against one of the best defenses in the league.

On the other side, Bo Nix spent three quarters living up to the early-season Mike Tanier nickname “Leftenant Beauregard Sideways,” with average completed yardage distances that would make Alex Smith blush.

The fourth quarter hit and this game got wild and Tee Higgins-centric. Higgins scored a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth. Nix countered with this:

Higgins had the ball stripped from him on a catch over the middle, Nix had his arm hit in motion and threw a pick. Burrow rushed for a touchdown with 1:39 left that showed some uh, questionable clockkeeping ability by the Bengals after Chase Brown tried to sit on the ball at the goal line the play before. Nix immediately countered with one of the most insane comeback throws we’ve seen, for Marvin Mims’ second touchdown catch of the game with 14 seconds left. The Broncos may not have gotten 14 seconds if not for that clock management:

This game went to overtime on that throw and it went right back to the game we saw in the first three quarters, with the Bengals squandering opportunities (Cade York’s missed field goal) and the Broncos being unable to play offense or throw the ball deep. Considering a tie got Denver in, they also notably should not have been calling timeouts on Cincinatti’s penultimate possession of the game.

With 1:14 left in overtime, Burrow hit Higgins for 31 yards on the sideline, a third miraculous catch. Then a three-yard touchdown kept the Bengals alive for at least one more week.

Chargers 40 at Patriots 7 — Drake Maye had a concussion evaluation and wound up throwing just five passes by halftime. Justin Herbert had all day to throw for essentially the entirety of the game. The Chargers easily crockpotted the Chargers to clinch their ticket to the playoffs.

I’d like to tell you I had a grand takeaway here, but really it just affirmed what I already knew: The Chargers defense can front run a bad offense and the Patriots probably have to let Jerod Mayo walk after one year. It isn’t entirely his fault that the talent level feels depleted in New England, but he also hasn’t shown enough urgency or interest in coaching up what he has to do better than this.

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Colts 33 at Giants 45 — A franchise-altering loss for the Colts, who somehow let Drew Lock throw for four touchdowns. I was curious to dig into the tape for this one after not watching it live, and it wasn’t that the Colts were blowing assignments, they just can’t actually tackle. Like at all:

So let’s talk about this year for the Colts as they’re eliminated from the playoffs: Your potential franchise quarterback gets benched at midseason, misses time with injuries again. He doesn’t show any development in the slightest. He looks essentially the same as he did in the small glimpse you saw in his rookie year. The offense stagnates every time he’s on the field unless it’s running for touchdowns. You are now guaranteed to finish under .500 in arguably the worst division in the NFL, one won by a team that can’t play offense and inhabited by teams that started Mason Rudolph and Mac Jones on purpose yesterday. The cornerback room that you defended before the season looks like garbage. The offensive line took a step back to what it was in 2022.

I don’t see a defense for Chris Ballard at this point that doesn’t look like “all GMs miss on draft picks sometimes.” And I do have empathy for that, because it’s not all his fault. But it was his idea to stay the course. It was his idea to draft Richardson. I don’t even know that I think Richardson is finished yet, but this team has been too shitty for too many years to keep doing this. And if you’re firing him, I think you probably have to let Steichen walk too. And at that point, isn’t this just a soft reset rebuild? I kind of think it might be.

Cowboys 7 at Eagles 41 — I don’t think Cooper Rush is a notably worse quarterback than Kenny Pickett (or Tanner McKee) is. But this was a supporting cast game, and CeeDee Lamb did not play in it. I think between the offensive line and skill position players, you could argue the Eagles had eight or nine of the best players in this game. And it played out that way. The Dallas defense couldn’t get the kind of pressure it did against Baker Mayfield last week because Philly’s offensive line held up, and then A.J. Brown got to do things like this:

The Eagles clinch the NFC East (and later the No. 2 seed), and Saquon Barkley goes over 2000 yards rushing on the season despite almost zero highlight-worthy carries in a 31/167 day. Running the ball never has to be sexy if it’s effective. The Cowboys? Well, they played hard for Mike McCarthy, and I’m told that’s all that matters.

Panthers 14 at Buccaneers 48 — Bryce Young made some really nice throws in this game. At the end of the day, it didn’t matter much. He took five sacks, the Panthers running game vanished without Chuba Hubbard, and Adam Thielen is the only receiver he can trust.

Baker Mayfield threw for five touchdowns, let’s check in on one of them to Mike Evans:

I’m not trying to insult Caleb Farley. I’m legitimately glad he’s out there after that back injury basically cost him most of his rookie contract. But I don’t think “covering Mike Evans at the goal line” is going to be his NFL calling card.

The Bucs go into next week needing only to beat the Saints to clinch the division.

Dolphins 20 at Browns 3 — The Dolphins threw a million screen passes and found out that their best play was “let Tyler Huntley scramble.” I’m being serious here: Of 74 Dolphins yards on the ground, Huntley’s scrambles accounted for 52 of them. He scored a touchdown on a red zone scramble. They managed to find Tyreek Hill in the middle of the field on a few concepts, but this offense more than earned that pre-game Vegas O/U of 31.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson is what it looks like when you dream that someone could eventually become Terrelle Pryor.

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Raiders 25 at Saints 10 — Brock Bowers breaks Mike Ditka’s rookie tight end receiver record despite a rocky start for the Raiders on offense. The Saints scored their one touchdown in this game on a trick play to Foster Moreau:

The Saints scored zero points against the Packers last week on Monday Night. They scored a touchdown on a trick play against the Commanders in Week 15. Since Spencer Rattler took over at quarterback, they have two trick play touchdowns and one regular touchdown. (And that came during a two-minute drill.)

I don’t think they’re going to beat the Buccaneers next week, just my read of the situation.

Titans 13 at Jaguars 20 — Mason Rudolph was installed as starter because Brian Callahan wants to win some games and establish some culture. He was also installed because Will Levis turns the ball over at a rate that is literally ridiculous in today’s NFL. The funny thing about this is that Rudolph throws a pick that should have been caught by Julius Chestnut, and the Jaguars score to take a two-score lead that a Mason Rudolph offense will never be able to overcome.

Callahan tries to run from his destiny, but this team is destined to be stupid and turn the ball over stupidly. That was what they asked for the second they put no right guard or right tackle in front of Levis. And they will probably stupidly beat the Texans in Week 18 too so Amy Strunk Adams can get literally the only win she cares about.