Sunday Recap: Texans spread to run, Deshaun Watson a rough watch

A look at Sunday's best and brightest (games that I watched)

Early game my eyes were on: Texans 29, Colts 27

I. Spread to run

The Texans put away the game with a Nico Collins catch, but the era they entered against the Colts was a football term I haven’t had to use in a while: they spread to run.

After mainlining Andrew Beck (rest in power return touchdown king) last year, the Texans used three wide receivers on a plurality of their plays against the Colts in Week 1, forcing nickel coverage. Tank Dell, No. 3 receiver, played 63% of the offensive snaps, and both Xavier Hutchinson and Robert Woods had small shares of playing time as well. The Colts also played zone on a vast majority of their snaps, NFL Pro’s insights had them using it on 94.7% of Stroud’s dropbacks. That forced a ton of underneath passes — the Texans only really had the one deep shot to Collins in the first half, and a few misses past 20 yards.

But the other thing that this stylistic defensive choice did was welcome Joe Mixon to the fold, and boy did he ever welcome himself to the Colts defense. He took advantage of the space and light boxes afforded to him by the pull of Houston’s passing game and ran 30 times for 159 yards and a touchdown. He iced the game on a third-and-3 that the Texans ran to convert — something that would have never happened last season. Rush Yards over Expected had him with a positive run on 58.6% of his carries. Obviously this number will regress — small sample sizes are bitches like that — but the league leader last year was Devon Achane at 47.4%.

So I can tell you that I was a little worried at times about Stroud’s pass protection, even if the Colts do pay to employ one of the best defensive lines in the league. Stroud held the ball for an average of 3.08 seconds per throw, which was the second-highest rate in the league not counting SNF or MNF, but it felt like Texans offensive linemen were losing one-on-ones much more often in the dropback game than they did even last year. (And Stroud held it for 3.04 seconds on average last year.) Stroud took 14 pressures per NFL Pro’s in-house numbers.

The thing is — they won the game even with a designer game plan of blitzes to confound Stroud and the offensive line. They won the game by having an effective counter-punch. If last year’s team ran into this kind of blitzkrieg, they weren’t answering it the same way. It is a hallmark of a good team to win a game like this ugly, even if it feels a little dispiriting on paper and we all want Stroud, Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs to turn games into (checking notes on references to avoid games nobody actually plays) College Football 25 stat-padding fests.

And given that I was at least a little skeptical of Mixon’s extension and fit in what had primarily been a zone-blocking scheme, I was heartened by his performance here in what amounted to a spotlight game for him.

II. The Anthony Richardson Three True Outcomes Machine

This quarterback the Colts employ is absolutely impossible not to watch. He creates some of the most ridiculous throws I’ve ever seen anyone make on a football field, the kind that just make you scoff and — even as someone who got to watch C.J. Stroud every week last year — roll your eyes and wonder how the hell that could have ever happened. He completed three throws of 50-plus yards against the Texans, and the league leader completed six last year.

He also happens to make the routine difficult. A touchdown throw missed here, and another deep throw overthrown there. In baseball parlance, a True Three Outcomes hitter is someone who only homers, walks, or strikeouts. That’s what came to mind as I watched Anthony Richardson. He overthrew someone, he made something short or run-focused work, or he hit it 450 feet.

I think the Texans will be okay defensively, I know there are worries about the safety crew and I get it — but not many quarterbacks can make even one of the throws Richardson did in a game. I do think they probably should have played more man coverage against the Colts, but I’m a) not an NFL head coach and b) understand being wary of Richardson running. He has a way of making a defense look absolutely stupid. He also has a way of making Colts fans surrender cobra. An utterly fascinating player. And also someone who I did not want to have the ball as time wound down, even after Nico Collins’ would-be-game-sealing catch. You know who can erase a lead with one throw? This Richardson kid. He’s must-watch TV.

Almost makes you wish the Colts and Texans had been given a major spot in the window instead of getting Andrew Catalon’ed (no offense Andrew, they make you work with Tiki Barber).

Late game my eyes were on: Browns 17 at Cowboys 33

I. The Deshaun Watson One True Outcome Machine

My other priors did not do very well on Sunday. Ryan Grubb’s passing offense didn’t lift off. The Buccaneers looked like last year’s Buccaneers. But — Deshaun Watson? Browns fans already want it to be over.

I suppose I can overlook the fact that Watson seemed to leave the pocket on this fourth-down throw a little early as a cumulative pressure effect, and certainly with four defenders in front of the sticks the underneath passes aren’t opening up quickly. But by bailing he leaves his leaks out to dry, the whole play comes down to the deep route concept and Watson’s scramble leaves him ill-prepared to do much but drift forward and make the throw more difficult.

The Cowboys are running out Mike Zimmer, who hates everybody and didn’t exactly end things in Minnesota on a happy note. It’s game one of his defense. It’s a talented group, of course — Trevon Diggs is healthy again, Micah Parsons is a top-10 most valuable player in the NFL, Tank Lawrence still great, etc. — but not something that should look as good as the Browns made it look on Sunday.

Watson and the Browns had one first down at halftime. One. And yes, he had to deal with backup tackle play. And yes, the running game also didn’t dominate or anything. But it’s hard to read the way that Kevin Stefanski treats him as anything but an anti-endorsement. You get the ball at the two-minute warning down 14 and you won’t throw? You have third-and-seven with 20 seconds left and you run a give-up draw even though the other team has three timeouts? This is how a coach treats a bad quarterback. And it’s hard to say anything in response to that beyond “I guess Stefanski’s eyes are working.”

Ollie Connolly had a good bit on this but the gist of his findings are: What used to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league under pressure is now one of the absolute worst. He did make a good end zone throw that Amari Cooper dropped when the game was well in hand in the fourth quarter. He did try some deeper stuff and lead a touchdown drive later in the game. But his accuracy was a problem even on the short stuff they did early in the game, to the point where throws like this felt commonplace:

You’ve got a clean pocket. All the space in the world in front of Elijah Moore. Relax and throw a catchable ball. Instead it’s dirted.

I can understand why they kept four quarterbacks. Watson obviously isn’t so bad that he can’t hold an NFL job — the bar is very low and he clears some of the marks — but he has played like a backup in Cleveland. It’s hard for them to have hope with him starting, and it sure feels like these two sides need a divorce. The only problem is that divorces are cheaper and involve less ego-swallowing than the guaranteed contract the Browns gave out to get him in the first place.

II. Dak gets paid to entertain you, then entertains you

There’s no reason to be upset about Dak Prescott’s fancy new contract. He had all the leverage in the world. The Cowboys had their silly dream of rehabilitating Trey Lance. He remains the same player he has been for three years: incredibly sublime, yet maddeningly fragile when things aren’t exactly what he wants or sees. Prescott did just fine and had a terrific throw to Brandin Cooks on a zero blitz to take the early lead, but if the Browns had put any real pressure on the Cowboys offense, this performance wouldn’t have been quite enough.

If we’re being honest, Prescott wasn’t gifted quite a bit of time to throw against the Browns. Tyler Guyton had a debut that was fairly up-and-down — as one would expect against Myles Garrett — and the rest of the Dallas line was giving up pressures here or there to the Browns vaunted front. Dak’s pressure rate was 31.4%, and that is despite a few moving pockets to get him running away from Garrett. But he completed 3.2% fewer of his passes than expected per NFL Pro.

It is, as we’ve said, a good defense. But not a defense that should be holding Dak Prescott to -0.34 EPA per dropback … or exactly .01 points higher than what Watson did on the other side of the ball. The Cowboys basically took their lead and hung on for dear life while Brandon Aubrey got to rain tightly-contested threes (versus the lake effect wind, I mean). With Jake Ferguson headed for an MRI, and Brandin Cooks also spending time in the locker room during this one, the Cowboys may be in a position where they need to find a good receiver for the stretch run. It didn’t look like Prescott could trust anyone but CeeDee Lamb against the tight Browns man coverage.

Other tidbits:

Bo Nix throws 42 times for 138 yards —

The great thing about keeping three quarterbacks if you’re Sean Payton is that you have two stored hopium bursts along the way as people inevitably realize you still don’t have a quarterback.

I don’t know that Nix is done-done, and I think highly of Seattle’s defensive coaching, but that was one of the worst debuts I can remember.

Does Malik Nabers care for Janiel Dones? — This is the kind of answer you give when you are already looking forward to next season. It’s Week 1. I don’t love Jump To Conclusions Week and do a lot to avoid playing into it when I can, but the Giants sure look like a true No. 1 overall pick contender and if Saquon Barkley really helps twist the knife along the way, I could actually see the Maras having to make a move to save face. Other than that, and getting manhandled by Sam Darnold, everything is great in New York!

Iconic Surrender Cobra of the Week Award — Will Levis after throwing the game-losing pick-six to Tyrique Stevenson:

Jeffrey Simmons was right when he said the Bears offense didn’t do shit. The problem is that the Titans did slightly more than not doing shit, and some of that slightly more was generating offense for the other team.

Boy, I Really Thought Higher Of Dave Canales Than This —

My favorite part of the throw is the lack of surprise that Diontae Johnson shows as the ball sails hopelessly over his head. No jump. No frustration. Just “ah, this again.” The Steelers have already broken this man’s beliefs in passing offense.

Kirk Cousins is entering his Tom Savage Era — (h/t Hayden)

Directly from NFL Pro:

In his first game back since tearing his Achilles, Kirk Cousins aligned in the pistol on 26 of 50 plays (55%).

Over the previous 8 seasons combined, Cousins took just 39 snaps from the pistol. The Falcons did not use play action one time the entire game, and only took one snap from under center. Cousins averaged just 3.1 scramble yards per dropback, moving a full yard fewer than any other game he has played over the last 9 seasons.

Now Kirk didn’t look quite as lackadaisical as Savage — that amount of slander is absolutely unfair. But he looked every bit as limited as those stats say he did. Maybe the Falcons should have drafted a first-round quarterback they could play right away?