Priors I can't shake for 2024

I can recognize that they are not exactly ironclad locks to happen, but I can't convince myself to not believe them

One of my favorite parts about writing is the realization halfway into a paragraph that what I’m typing needs to be backed up with facts. I will type something like “Boy, I don’t love the Jets this year,” or put out a list with last year’s division champions on the outs and think “Hm, I probably should explain why that is.”

I offer you my priors that I have assaulted with other people’s knowledge to no avail. I hope to learn from them one way or the other. Perhaps my lesson will be that my priors are bunk, or perhaps I’ll learn that my gut instinct is good. More likely, what I will learn is that I am a mixed bag on predicting things, which is usually what ends up happening.

While I do think some of these predictions are in line with what I’ll call for lack of a better term the “football analytics media consensus” I am mostly aiming for stuff that would be surprising in one way or another in this post. I could tell you that I think the Chiefs will be the No. 1 seed, but I don’t think that’s really a hot take. I could tell you that the Patriots, Giants, and Commanders are this year’s real No. 1 overall pick contenders, but those are roughly the exact three teams that oddsmakers would spit out for it. A prior has to be a little bit against the grain for me to post it.

1) I don’t think the Jets will be good this year, and, in fact, think they will be about what they were last season even with Aaron Rodgers.

I wrote my major misgivings about the Jets here. But I phrased that more as “I don’t think they have a chance to make the Super Bowl.” Here’s what I really think: I would not be surprised if they went 7-10 again. The vibes coming off the Jets genuinely stink, and I am worried about Tyrod Taylor’s ability to operate as anything more than a three-week backup before he gets hurt. Even the great ones are capable of producing dull endings, and I have a lot of misgivings about Aaron Rodgers not even taking a pre-season snap and disappearing for OTAs. I don’t think he cares. I really don’t. It is a prior that I can’t shake no matter how much I look at Zach Wilson’s stat line last year. Now that doesn’t mean they can’t make the playoffs, because 7-10 is two fluke bits from 9-8, and three from 10-7, and that sorta randomness is inherent to a 17-game schedule. But I don’t rate them as a legitimate AFC contender and am actively running from any non-Breece Hall/Garrett Wilson Jets in fantasy football.

2) The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will collapse on offense without Dave Canales.

Todd Bowles has had interesting offensive coordinators, he’s had dull offensive coordinators. He’s had bad offensive coordinators, and last year for the first time he tried someone good in Dave Canales. Canales got a chance to run the show in Carolina after rejuvenating Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith. I don’t think Liam Coen, formerly the Rams OC, is a cataclysmic letdown of a coordinator. But he did coordinate one of the Rams’ worst campaigns in the McVay Era. He did go to Kentucky and run a roundly dull offense that only succeeded because Ray Davis was a monster.

So he’s kind of a vagabond, and on some teams — good offensive mind and staff, good talent — I’d kind of shrug my shoulders about that. But nobody has gotten more out of Baker Mayfield than Canales. The running game was already terrible last season. Mike Evans, ageless though he is, turned one theoretical year older. Jalen McMillan and Graham Barton are rookies immediately shoved into the spotlight. I just see a lot that could go wrong here. I can’t shake the thought that Coen could just be a fraud, and that has mostly informed my elevation of Atlanta in predictions.

3) Seattle’s offense will overperform projections to the point of Ryan Grubb being a hot head coaching candidate in 2025.

Washington had a lot of high-powered weapons in college last year between Rome Odunze, Michael Penix, McMillan, and Ja’Lynn Polk. But they also ran an attacking offensive style that I found aesthetically pleasing to watch. So when Mike MacDonald, who I already thought was pretty sharp, brought Grubb in this offseason, my ears perked up a little bit.

Geno Smith had a rough year by the traditional numbers last year, but his DVOA was actually better than it was in 2022 at 10.0%. He’s enough of a gunslinger to make Grubb’s attacking style work. I like all the receivers, even if Tyler Lockett does seem to have some bad age-related vibes around him. I’ve always been a huge Kenneth Walker fan. The offensive line — I’m not going to lie to you, there are some questions there — but they were already there last season and should be a little bit better.

I think this team can take a leap forward and be a playoff-caliber unit in 2024, in much the same way they were in 2022. I would not be surprised if people look at Grubb’s system after 2024 and thought “that’s what I need to grow my quarterback in.” And that feels like one of the first questions that get asked about any head-coaching candidate today. Could he be up-and-down as he gets used to NFL defenses? Absolutely. But these are my priors…

4) Deshaun Watson will not be a good quarterback. Again.

It isn’t just the shoulder, and it isn’t just the “general soreness” that had him ruled out before his final preseason game. And it isn’t just the Browns keeping four quarterbacks at last cuts. It’s impossible to talk about Watson psychologically for me without it taking 3,000 words, and I want to emphasize I have no deep sources on this or anything. I just don’t think he’s mentally recovered from what happened to his career between the trade request, the accusations, the holdout, the shoulder surgery, and all of it coming together.

I don’t say this to celebrate it, or out of a sense of obligation to knock the guy for the trade. There’s always going to be a small part of me (one that I keep very quiet, because I know that said part of me is not very popular) pulling for Watson after the history he gave the Texans in his first five seasons. What he was accused of was despicable and basically unforgiveable, so I don’t forgive him for that. But I can’t erase feelings that I felt, no matter how convenient it might be to my own psyche sometimes.

I just can’t believe that after 12 games of thoroughly subpar, 6.1 adjusted yards per attempt play over two seasons, that he’s going to suddenly wake up and be the 2020 version of himself. It’s a problem for the Browns, who aren’t doing anything more than a Steelers cover band with a subpar quarterback and literally don’t have an out on the contract. If we were going to get glowing reports from the Browns beat writers about Watson’s play, I think we would have heard them by now. I think this is just who Watson is now.

5) The Jaguars will remain a playoff-relevant team and Trevor Lawrence will remain a better quarterback than he is given credit for.

I sort of stuck out my leg on this stance in FTN Almanac 2024 (on sale now!), but I think there were both talent and injury-related issues with Lawrence down the stretch in 2023. I don’t love the move to pick up Gabe Davis, but I understand where it is coming from because the Jaguars didn’t have that kind of body in the room last year. Then you add Brian Thomas Jr — more there in a few paragraphs — and I think the room can actually deliver some non-separation catches in 2024.

As for the playoffs for them? I think people are quick to bury them when … they won nine games despite all the issues. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker are a great pass-rush core, and the defense has a lot of talent to work with. I don’t necessarily look at them and see a Super Bowl contender, but I also wouldn’t be stunned if they won the division or won a playoff game. The core is absolutely there, they just need more from the supporting cast and more hits from the person who picks the supporting cast. (That’d be Trent Baalke.)

6) The Saints will finally bottom out and win fewer than seven games — something that hasn’t happened since 2005.

One of FTN Almanac’s biggest discrepancies with oddsmakers is that the Saints are projected to win 9.7 games and be a real playoff contender (45% playoff contender, 24% Super Bowl contender) … and I disagree with the DVOA computer here. Absent a Spencer Rattler instant impact turnaround in the second half, I see a team that has an aging defense, a bad offensive line, and one offensive impact player (Chris Olave) trying to stave off a full-on regression for one year. I see a head coach who is woefully overmatched — I think of Dennis Allen as perhaps the worst head coach in the NFL now — and so disrespected by his locker room that they went and scored that last touchdown against the Falcons in Week 18 without his approval.

I don’t hate Derek Carr as a bridge quarterback, I think he might make a good trade target at the deadline for a team that is in it, but you know he’s not elevating this cast of characters. Klint Kubiak’s offensive coordinator year in Minnesota went so well that he could only get passing game coordinator jobs the last two years. The kind of talent or coaching difference-maker I’d want to point to and say “this is what will keep them in the race!” isn’t there. And the defense, Allen’s specialty, finally fell to about average in 2023 and will be adding precious little besides a prove-it contract for Chase Young. I’ve got nothing but respect for the core of those great Saints defenses, but Tyrann Mathieu is 32, Cameron Jordan is 35, a lot of good talent has walked out the door the last two years.

I think they could hold on to third over Carolina depending on how bad Bryce Young is this year, but no way would I have any loftier ambitions than that for them in 2024. This team needs a hard reset.

7) Green Bay makes a real Super Bowl push based on their youth and defensive improvement.

There are two major bets you’re making here. One is that Jordan Love is what he looked like towards the end of the season, when he had an 18:1 TD:INT ratio over his last eight starts along with an 8.84 adjusted yards per attempt. That carried well in the playoffs, even if the interception-less streak died against the 49ers in the Divisional Round.

The second is that the defense, after years of Joe Barry, will perk up significantly under a more aggressive coaching staff with former BC coach Jeff Hafley. I’ve long believed the Packers have underperformed their talent on that side of the ball, and they find themselves another year clear of Rashan Gary’s ACL tear after he was managed a bit in 2023.

If you combine those things with the talented young receiving corps they have, I can really squint my eyes and see them making noise earlier than expected this year. And, well, the Packers have literally been good with a great quarterback for almost every year since I turned 8. You’ll have to forgive me for believing that will continue.

8) This will be a historically good rookie wide receiver class in terms of early production.

The fact that three rookie wideouts went in the top 10 should alert you that this is a good class. But the fact that so many of them wound up on incredible depth charts to instantly contribute is what catches my eye. Nobody is taking away targets from Malik Nabers with the Giants, obviously. Marvin Harrison Jr. is instantly the best Cardinals receiver. Odunze, though he wound up next to D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, I think could push Allen for targets by the middle of the season.

Then look at where the rest of the highest-drafted wideouts landed. Brian Thomas Jr. may instantly be the best wideout the Jaguars have, and he’s certainly the best outside receiver they have. He’s going to turn it on right away. Xavier Worthy will get a chance to instantly be Kansas City’s No. 2 wide receiver, and his speed should open up a wealth of ideas for that offense. Keon Coleman has started all the pre-season games for the Bills with the 1s and walks into a Stefon Diggs-sized target vacuum. While I don’t love his frame for the long-term, Ladd McConkey’s depth chart immediately makes him the best receiver Justin Herbert has. Polk has a chance to make some noise with the Patriots. Adonai Mitchell has all the talent in the world and should get a chance to quickly clear Alec Pierce. Obviously we won’t get much from Ricky Pearsall with the 49ers, and I’m a little concerned about Xavier Legette’s early returns in Carolina. But other than that, this top 60 was loaded with receiving threats that could play right away.